Over on /r/MGTOW, another link to Statistics Brain which I originally used in my post about the Divorce Grinder that I put up several months ago.
One of the commentors states that this is wrong, bullshit, etc - and states that Statistics Brain doesn't cite it's sources, etc. (Which it does, it's just that the CDC hasn't yet posted out the September 2016 statistics that were used. Us ordinary peons don't get that info the moment it's been generated, it goes first to people who pay out the nose for it.)
Now, there's quite a lot of apparent relief in the post. Even the op is saying that he's glad he posted it, else he'd live with the misconception.
I hate to burst these men's bubbles - and not to shit on the commentor who states that the Statistics Brain people are wrong, wrong, wrong - the Statistics Brain people are correct. Here is how you actually calculate these statistics on a yearly basis.
This is the basic data that I've dragged out of the CDC's website - I've chosen to use Page 16, the 2006-2010 statistics for all women (the stats are roughly the same as for men, a 1% difference). I've put a 0 in there as a beginning data-point, because hopefully you don't get divorced 3 seconds after marriage (and there's no 1-year percentage to start from):
When you throw in the data from the latest key-statistics it looks much worse and more like what the Statistics Brain people state:
It's a bleak look through Crap-Colored Glasses™ today. Marriage and divorce is still a massive shit-sandwich of pain.
The CDC statistics are cumulative. That’s why the divorce rates in the table are constantly and steadily rising.ReplyDelete
The statistic is: 32% of first marriages fail within ten years. That means that 32% of marriages end in divorce before they reach the tenth anniversary.
That is much different from stating that 32% of marriages that lasted nine years will end in divorce in the tenth year, as your calculations assume.
Do you believe that out of the two million or so marriages that took place in 1998, only a few hundred still survive?
Or that a marriage that has lasted 19 years has a much worse chance of lasting another year than a marriage between newlyweds?